Working Papers:

Who's Right in the Inflation Targeting Debate in Emerging Markets?

Abstract: As the policy of inflation targeting (IT) has spread globally over the last three decades, it has produced a large body of literature examining its effects. The results vary dramatically, with existing estimates of IT’s impact on average inflation in emerging economies ranging from -11% to +1%. This paper investigates the sources of this variation and identifies the most reliable estimates, focusing on different econometric techniques. Monte Carlo simulations evaluate estimation methods in terms of bias and precision, revealing systematic identification challenges coming from an endogenous choice of IT adoption and mean-reverting inflation dynamics. Importantly, the estimators produce consistently ordered results: two-way fixed effects shows the largest negative impact, serving as the upper bound of IT’s inflation-reducing effect, and system GMM yields the smallest effect, providing a lower bound - a pattern that appears in simulations, empirical applications, and previous literature. Applying these insights and techniques to 42 emerging markets (1985-2019), I show how methodological choices drive the conflicting conclusions in the literature. Under the most credible methods, I find that IT reduced average inflation in emerging markets by approximately 1.2-1.5 percentage points. These results provide a more accurate IT assessment and contribute to the toolkit for evaluating monetary policy frameworks. 

Sectoral and State Evidence on the Pandemic Beveridge Curve Shift 

with David Osten and Jionglin (Andy) Zheng

Abstract: The national Beveridge curve shifted outward significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020M4–2022M4) compared to the pre-pandemic period (2009M9–2020M3), but the underlying determinants remain debated. This paper investigates these drivers using cross-sectional variation across states and industries. We introduce a novel geometric measure to quantify shifts, defined as the distance along the 45-degree line between pre-pandemic and pandemic-era curves. Industry-level analysis shows larger shifts in sectors with lower wages and limited remote-work options. Through a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides framework decomposition, we demonstrate that changes in matching efficiency and separation rate correlate with these industry traits respectively. State-level shifts strongly associate with industry composition and COVID-19 infection rates. Our findings suggest that expanded unemployment insurance, limited telework capacity, and COVID-19 severity jointly drove the aggregate Beveridge curve shift during the pandemic.

Exchange Rate Responses to Geopolitical Risk and Trade Policy Uncertainty: Cross-Country Evidence

with Sinem Yagmur Toraman and Jionglin (Andy) Zheng

Abstract: This paper examines how exchange rates respond to geopolitical risk (GPR) and trade policy uncertainty (TPU) shocks using a panel local projection framework. We analyze monthly bilateral exchange rates of advanced economy and most freely floating emerging market currencies against the U.S. dollar from 1985 to 2025. We document two main findings. First, large global GPR shocks, defined as those above the 90th percentile, exhibit threshold effects, causing advanced economy currencies to depreciate against the U.S. dollar more strongly and more significantly than those of emerging markets. In contrast, country-specific GPR shocks trigger pronounced depreciation in emerging market currencies, while responses in advanced economies are delayed and less statistically significant. Second, TPU shocks above the same threshold lead to significant depreciation against the U.S. dollar across both country groups, with larger effects on emerging markets. Our results highlight the non-linearity of GPR and TPU shocks and their differential impacts across country groups.

Households and Inflation: From Perceived Past to Expected Future

with Tobias Schmidt (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Abstract: The link between household inflation perceptions and expectations is well established, but its sensitivity to changing inflation regimes remains underexplored. This paper uses high-frequency microdata from six euro area countries in the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to document how this relationship varies across low, rising, and falling inflation periods. We find that the comovement weakens significantly during disinflation, as expectations become more rigid. Extrapolation from perceived past inflation into future expectations varies by income, education, gender, and employment status, but not across age groups, and declines most sharply among consumers with low perception accuracy, intermediate trust in the ECB, and high subjective uncertainty. Our results suggest that the link is context-sensitive, shaped by both a general behavioral shift during disinflation and individual-level traits. 

Drivers of Exchange Rate Movements in  the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) Region: The Role of Financial Conditions and Commodity Price Shocks

with Alejandro Hajdenberg (IMF) and Shujaat A. Khan (IMF) (IMF FIP Research Project)

Pre-Doctoral: 

The Effect of Terrorism on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: A Cross-Country Analysis Over Time

with Paul Yoon and MiaoMiao Xu, Issues in Political Economy, vol. 28(1), 2019.